Monday, October 22, 2007

Broadbandtrends: FTTH systems revenue peaks in 2009


OCTOBER 22, 2007 -- The global FTTH market is currently entering a period of growth that will peak in 2009, says market research and analysis firm broadbandtrends in its recently published report, FTTH Equipment Market Begins to "See the Light."

The growth comes as an increasing number of Tier 1 operators across Asia Pacific, EMEA, and North America deploy FTTH networks on a large scale. Additionally, demand for higher bandwidth (particularly in support of multi-stream HDTV IPTV video services), strong competition from cable and alternative operators, escalating costs to maintain copper infrastructure, continuing innovations and cost reductions in optical infrastructure, increasing FTTH interoperability activity, as well as the ability to converge all services onto a single network, are helping to reinforce the attractiveness of FTTH for many operators.

As shown in the figure, PON systems will experience the strongest growth and account for greater than 85 percent of total FTTH systems revenue throughout the forecast period. At the present time, total FTTH systems revenue is expected to reach its peak value during 2009 before experiencing downward pressure, primarily due to declining price points.

Major report highlights include:


  • Global FTTH systems revenue is expected to reach its peak value of $3.0 billion in 2009.
  • PON systems revenue will dominate the global FTTH market throughout the forecast period.
  • GPON will overtake EPON revenue by 2009 and shipments in 2010.
  • Asia Pacific will consume the largest portion of FTTH equipment through 2011, when North America takes over.
  • North America's share of FTTH subscribers will grow from 10 percent in 2006 to 22 percent by 2012.
  • Nearly 170 million homes will be passed by FTTH by 2012.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

If It's Good Enough For TRUMP...

Two of Donald Trump's Super-Luxurious Buildings to Get Verizon's Super-Fast FiOS Internet Connections

Residents of The Trump World Tower at United Nations Plaza and Trump Park Avenue Will Enjoy the Most Advanced, Fiber-Powered Technology and Ability to Surf the Internet at Speeds of Up to 50 MbpsTrump...

By PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Oct. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Residents of The Trump World Tower at United Nations Plaza and Trump Park Avenue have always enjoyed the latest amenities. Now they'll have the most advanced communications available when Verizon turns on its FiOS Internet service at the two buildings.

Trump Organization Chairman and President Donald J. Trump said, "Trump properties are known for offering the finest in both services and amenities. Having Verizon FiOS services delivered on fiber optics to my buildings continues that high standard of excellence I demand. We know our residents will appreciate our foresight in getting them the best in telecommunications services from Verizon. I'm working with Verizon to bring FiOS to all of my properties."

Donald Trump and Verizon are exploring which other Trump properties can be served by FiOS. Verizon offers FiOS services in parts of 16 states.

Trump Organization Chief Operating Officer Matthew Calamari said, "We never had a second thought about having Verizon FiOS services installed in the buildings.

"At Trump Properties we provide super-luxurious accommodations and the latest technology to serve our residents," said Calamari. "When we learned that there's an even more advanced network in the marketplace that can deliver the fastest Internet connections, we wanted to bring it immediately to our residents. It's technology that we believe will support future technologies our residents will adopt."

The plans for FiOS at The Trump World Tower at United Nations Plaza (845 United Nations Plaza) and Trump Park Avenue (502 Park Ave.) reflect the competitive advantage Verizon's fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) network offers developers in marketing their properties.

Vice President of Verizon Enhanced Communities Eric Cevis said, "We are working as fast as we can to bring FiOS Internet services to residents in New York City. Residents at these two Trump properties, along with consumers who live in other parts of the five boroughs where FiOS Internet is available, will truly be amazed when they surf the Internet or download feature films with FiOS. We'll work with the Trump team to get FiOS to as many properties as we can."

At 50 Mbps, downloading a 1.2 GB (gigabyte), or 90-minute, standard- definition movie takes only 3.2 minutes.

Cevis also noted that FiOS TV, Verizon's feature-rich service, could be made available to the two Trump properties and elsewhere in the city once a local video franchise is approved. In New York, cable TV service providers are required by law to negotiate franchises with municipalities they hope to serve.

Verizon's FiOS Internet service in New York offers download speeds of up to 10, 20 and 50 Mbps and upload speeds of up to 5 Mbps. Verizon is constructing its all-fiber-optic network throughout the state. Currently, Verizon offers FiOS Internet service in many parts of the five boroughs of New York and elsewhere throughout the state. FiOS TV service is available on Long Island and in Westchester and Rockland counties.

The Trump World Tower at United Nations Plaza is the tallest residential complex in the Western Hemisphere. It offers over-sized condominium residences and penthouses on 90 floors -- a total of 376 living units. Trump Park Avenue, the former Delmonico Hotel, offers residences from one to seven bedrooms, including full-floor apartments, an extraordinary duplex and penthouses on 35 floors. Both Trump properties offer residents a fitness center, valet and laundry service, and more.

FiOS Internet was named to the top five of PC World Magazine's 100 Best Products of 2007 - a roster of what the magazine called "the finest products and services of the past 12 months," selected "based on exemplary design, features, performance and innovation." Readers of PC World and Computerworld magazines recently ranked FiOS Internet No. 1, with top scores across the board in overall satisfaction, connection reliability, download and upload speeds, customer service, and technical support. Additionally, Verizon is the only major telecom company whose network has earned the certification of the independent Fiber to the Home Council for providing fiber all the way to customers' homes.

For more information about The Trump World Tower at United Nations Plaza, visit www.trumpworldtower.com; for more information about Trump Park Avenue, visit www.trumpparkavenue.com.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Fios is catching on in Dallas and nationwide, Verizon exec says

More than 150,000 Dallas-area homes are now plugged into Verizon's fiber-optic Internet service, Verizon's chief technology officer said Wednesday

And more than 100,000 subscribe to the company's fiber-optic television service, Mark Wegleitner said in an interview after his keynote speech at the Telephony Live conference in Dallas.

"Things are going very well down here with Fios," Mr. Wegleitner said.

But while Fios got its start in the Dallas area – Keller, specifically – the technology is quickly spreading nationwide.

Roughly 9 million American households will be able to sign up for Fios by the end of the year, and that number is expected to double by 2011.

The service is available to about 400,000 homes in the Dallas area.

Verizon had about 1.1 million Fios Internet customers nationwide as of June 30, an increase of 203,000 since the first quarter of the year.

Fios TV customers totaled more than 515,000 at the end of June, an increase of 167,000.

Verizon also announced Wednesday that it has applied to make its video service available to an additional 15,000 homes in Far North Dallas and North Grand Prairie.

Fios is one of Verizon's biggest bets, as the company is investing nearly $23 billion between 2004 and 2010 in creating an ultrahigh-speed network that is designed to last two decades or more.

For example, some employees are already testing in their homes Fios connections with download at speeds as fast as 100 megabits per second, whereas most home broadband Internet connections in the U.S. now are 5 megabits per second or less.

And it's a bet that, so far, other television, telephone and Internet providers have declined to copy by building their own to-the-home fiber networks, although AT&T may be coming closest with its U-Verse system.

Mr. Wegleitner said the investment will pay off, though, and said Verizon expects to benefit from laying the groundwork for the bandwidth-intensive applications of the future, from high-definition video to playing massive, online video and computer games.

Here are some excerpts from the interview.

Why is Fios important to Verizon?

"The consumer area is extremely important to us. The movement of that market to broadband at the current rate is unprecedented. What we've done with Fios is build a vehicle out there where we can provide services to feed that hunger for those broadband applications.

"It's a platform on which we can provide any number of services in the voice, video, data and wireless domain. That's why we picked Fios. It was a tough decision, because it's a lot of money. But on the other hand, it's the platform that can take us into the next decade."

With the download speeds currently available on Fios, is the goal to make the Fios TV offering eventually a pure IPTV technology, where consumers can just download any show they want at any time rather than having to adhere to a network schedule?

"I may be a bit of a contrarian on this, because it's very easy to jump on the bandwagon and say it's all going to be viewing on demand and time-shifted programming. But the fact of the matter is, there are still two very important things out there today that do have a time component to them, and that's news and sports. So if you're going to do news and sports, you're probably into something akin to broadcasting.

"The other thing is, and this is where my contrarian side probably kicks in, I think there are social events built around TV. This is just a cultural thing. When you get to the office on Friday morning, there are a number of people who probably want to talk about the show right then. They saw it as soon as it was available, and they're excited about what happened, and they want to discuss it around the water cooler."

Right now, the fastest available Fios Internet connection is 50 megabits per second in some cities (30 megabits per second in the Dallas area). When will see 100-megabit-per-second connections?

"We're already testing 100-megabit-per-second service to a couple of employees. It works fine. It doesn't mean we're going to go there right away [as a commercial offering], because there aren't very many applications out there right now that could use 100 megabits per second. But the nice thing about this technology is it gives us the headroom for the things we see coming."

Will the average consumer ever need that kind of speed?

"I think we're already seeing a demand for speed that is certainly greater than DSL. Ultimately, we would see applications that would push DSL beyond the limit. Fios investment is a minimum of a 15-year investment. We put in a technology that has a 15, 20, 25 year life, because we've got a broad number of things to do."

Do you encourage software makers to make online applications that need that kind of speed, such as a high-definition video download service?

"We have conversations with hundreds of different companies that are specializing in certain areas, and a whole group that is multimedia applications and service focused. But frankly, I don't think they're going to need a lot of stimulus from us. There is an engine that runs, which is that if you put the device and the network in place, the applications will show up, and vice versa."

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

FTTM - Fiber to the Mountain

Click here to listen to a neat little clip about running power AND fiber up to the top of Mount Washington (a mountain I've hiked about 10 times)

Monday, September 24, 2007

Investors can cash in as demand for fiber optics takes off

Despite the countless miles of unused fiber-optic cable laid during the dot-com bubble, demand for the high-capacity lines has been rising. And that bodes well for the stocks of companies that produce not only the cable but also the equipment that runs it.

Fiber-optic cable, typically made of ultrapure glass, can carry vast amounts of data via light. During the boom days of the Internet bubble, phone companies buried vast amounts of fiber-optic cable, in part because they assumed that Internet traffic would soar.

Many companies initially laid large cables underground, even though many of the fibers wouldn't be used at first.

In the years since the dot-com boom, engineers have figured out how to move more data through the same amount of fiber, increasing the fiber-optic capacity. As a result, there are still untold miles of unused fiber cable, or dark fiber, in the USA.

But now, demand for new fiber-optic cable is zooming. "Worldwide, we expect double-digit growth rates in fiber-optic cable demand the next few years," says Richard Mack of KMI Research/CRU, a London-based research firm. One key reason: the boom in moving video and audio files via the Internet.

The light fantastic

Watching a video on the Internet sops up far more bandwidth than just surfing websites does. The proliferation of video sites such as YouTube means that consumers have been demanding more and more bandwidth, to move files at faster speeds.

Fiber-optic cable demand should rise 10% in the USA this year, Mack says, and by as much as 15% in China and 20% in India. Each nation has different reasons for high demand:

USA. There's plenty of dark cable left, mainly around large metro areas. And telecom companies are still laying cable. "It's part of forward planning," Mack says. "As we speak, people are putting in more cable than they need."

Demand for U.S. fiber-optic cable isn't coming from companies that are laying fiber for 20 years from now; it's mainly from companies that are connecting houses and apartments to existing fiber-optic lines. Despite all the cable available between cities, telecommunications companies still have to run cable down streets to link homes and offices to the existing lines.

About 1.3 million U.S. households, or 1.3% of all, were connected directly to fiber-optic lines in July, according to the Fiber-to-the-Home Council, a trade group. That number has grown to about 2% of households since then and could reach 25% within three years, says David St. John, spokesman for the group.

Verizon is spearheading the fiber-to-home growth in the USA. It connected about 203,000 new customers to its FiOS broadband and TV services in the second quarter of 2007. The company plans to spend a staggering $23 billion on its fiber-optic network by 2010. "Verizon is betting the farm on it," St. John says.

Helping to accelerate fiber-to-the-home growth is new bendable fiber, which makes it easier to connect apartment buildings to fiber-optic cable. Fiber-optic cable has high capacity. But it can crack or lose capacity if it's bent too sharply. On Wednesday, Corning, the largest U.S. producer of fiber-optic cable, introduced its ClearCurve cable, which it says is as bendable as copper wire — yet has about 3 million times the capacity.

China. Chinese fiber-optic-cable demand has grown about 20% a year the past few years, Mack says, but will slow to about 15% this year because China has already built much of its city-to-city backbone. Still, the Chinese will use a great deal of cable as they prepare for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing.

India. India is still building its Internet backbone, and demand for fiber-optic cable should grow about 20% a year, Mack says.

The biggest player in the fiber-optic-cable business is Corning. And it's a favorite among those who are bullish on fiber stocks. "Our biggest play there is Corning," says Kevin Landis, manager of Firsthand Technology Value fund.

Fiber options

Landis figures that Corning will benefit from the push to hook up households via optical fiber. He also thinks Corning will benefit from international growth. "Even though WorldCom deployed too much fiber across the Great Plains, that doesn't help China any."

Corning's stock performance hasn't lived up to its potential: It's up just 3.3% the past 12 months. Daniel Scalzi, CEO of Matrix USA, a Wall Street research firm, thinks the company has to shore up its balance sheet: "When you look at its profit margin and valuation, it doesn't work for us. They're spending a lot of money to make not enough money. That said, they're in a great business."

Ken Croft, manager of Croft-Leominster Value, suggests Cisco, which makes much of the equipment necessary for fiber-optic telecom. The stock has soared 40.8% over the past 12 months. But it isn't cheap: The stock is selling for 21.8 times its 2009 estimated earnings. (The price-earnings ratio tells you how expensive a stock is, relative to earnings. Lower is better.)

Another suggestion: General Cable, (BGC) which makes copper as well as fiber-optic cable. The stock has soared nearly 80% the past 12 months, and it sells for about 16 times its 2008 estimated earnings. But it's volatile: It's fallen about 15% the past three months.

A final possibility: Sumitomo Electric, a Japanese company with a fiber-optic-cable division.

Friday, September 21, 2007

AT&T aims for 10,000 IPTV installs per week

AT&T has reduced the average installation time for its U-verse IPTV service by 13% in the past month, according to Ralph de la Vega, the carrier’s group president of regional telecommunications and entertainment. And the company hopes to continue reducing installation times and increasing the pace of service activations.

Recent process improvements have allowed AT&T to reduce its average U-verse installation time from 7.5 hours to 6.5 hours over the past month, de la Vega said at an investor conference this week.

“My best region is doing 5.8,” he said. “My best district is doing 5.6, and my best technician is doing 4. So I like the trend.”

In recent weeks, AT&T has been averaging between 7,000 and 8,000 installations per week, he said. “Ten thousand is very doable.”

Earlier this month, the company announced having amassed 100,000 subscribers for the IPTV service.

Along with historical improvements in technology costs, de la Vega also cited improvements in video encoding technologies that allow for better use of network bandwidth. “Today we code using 8.5 Mb,” he said. “We now have codecs we’ll put into our network effective next month that do it at 6.5 Mb.”

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

U.S. Start-Ups Set Sights on India

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Rehan Jalil founded his wireless-broadband company WiChorus Inc. two years ago and based it here in the heart of Silicon Valley. But when it actually starts selling its gear to phone companies next year, WiChorus won't be looking for customers in California or anywhere else in the U.S. The company's target market is thousands of miles away -- in India.

In a twist on globalization -- and a nod to India's fast-growing economy -- an increasing number of high-tech start-ups, like WiChorus, are basing their operations in the U.S. but setting their sights on Indian customers.

[Indian Connection]

Many of these Silicon Valley companies, often headed by Indian-born entrepreneurs, sell specially designed, low-cost products particularly suited to people in developing nations.

Examples include Bubble Motion Inc., based in Mountain View, Calif., which sells a voice-messaging service popular with non-English speakers who can't or don't want to type out text messages on a phone keypad. (Though some customers speak English, others are illiterate or use local Indian dialects that don't employ the Roman alphabet.) Biotech outfit ReaMetrix Inc., of San Carlos, Calif., develops low-cost diagnostic tests to manage ailments like diabetes and HIV infection. And Mobio Networks Inc. of Cupertino, Calif., is working with several Indian phone carriers to offer via cellphone free and low-cost entertainment, like sports information and gossip. All are funded by U.S. venture-capital firms.

Some of these start-ups are also targeting U.S. or European customers, or could do it down the road. But for now, most are following the made-in-the-USA, sold-in-India model, trying to tap India's rapidly expanding consumer market in hot industries like wireless technology and life sciences.

With these companies, "the market is Indian. The entrepreneur might be Indian," says Navin Chaddha, a managing director with the Mayfield Fund venture-capital firm, which is an investor in WiChorus. "But the problem is being solved in the U.S. for a market that sits outside the U.S."

Even though their products are destined for foreign shores, often these companies say they must be based in the U.S. to have access to specialized engineering talent, U.S. venture capital, or to protect intellectual property.

The trend represents the latest wrinkle in Silicon Valley's relationship with India. Engineers from the country have long migrated to the San Francisco Bay Area to get graduate degrees, find jobs and start companies. More recently, Silicon Valley companies have outsourced customer support and even some product-development work to India, though some have pulled back as labor costs there have climbed.

Venture capitalists also have begun investing directly in Indian companies, targeting the domestic Indian market. According to the National Venture Capital Association, a trade group, U.S. venture capitalists sank nearly $932 million into Indian companies last year, up from $583 million in 2005.

But WiChorus's Mr. Jalil, 37 years old, says many Indians prefer to work for bigger, brand-name firms and are hesitant to sign on with start-ups, which are seen as risky. He also says the U.S. offers a bigger, deeper pool of engineers with more expertise in a wireless technology called WiMAX and other arcane specialties critical to WiChorus's success. (WiMAX is similar to the Wi-Fi technology that creates Internet "hot spots" in cafes and airports, but operates over a much larger geographical area and can sometimes be accessed on the go, such as from a moving car.)

Many of Mr. Jalil's most-important employees are veterans of local high-tech companies, most notably Cisco Systems Inc. And his investors are big-name venture capitalists from Menlo Park and Palo Alto, which are both near his company's headquarters.

"Silicon Valley is the only place you could do this," asserts Mr. Jalil, an engineer who was born in Pakistan but educated in the U.S. He started WiChorus in late 2005 after leaving another wireless start-up, Aperto Networks, because he says he wanted to create lower-cost broadband technology for the developing world.

WiChorus does employ about 15 people in Hyderabad, a city in India well-known as a high-tech hub. But those workers mainly build network-management software, which Mr. Jalil calls "very specific, contained work," though it is critical to WiChorus's product.

WiChorus's 45 employees and assorted consultants in San Jose -- who work in cubicles and labs on the third floor of an office building with eye-catching, pumpkin-colored walls -- are the ones doing the hard-core product innovation, Mr. Jalil says. They include researchers with Ph.Ds from the University of California at Berkeley and managers like Sheldon Gilbert, the company's Massachusetts Institute of Technology-educated head of business development who founded another wireless-broadband company called Ensemble Communications. WiChorus's head of engineering, Kamal Avlani, spent 10 years at Cisco developing high-end routing devices for directing Internet traffic.

WiChorus is focusing on India first because WiMAX is sorely needed there, according to Mr. Jalil. The Indian government is pushing to increase broadband penetration but is now stymied by a lack of phone lines to offer high-speed access.

Of India's more than 1.1 billion people, only about 40 million subscribe to a traditional landline phone service, according to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. And not all of those lines are capable of transmitting data at broadband speeds, Mr. Jalil says. As of July, there were 193 million wireless-phone subscribers.

WiChorus says its gear can help offer Internet connectivity without the phone lines for as little as $15 a month. That may still be too expensive for the average Indian, who makes less than $900 a year, according to the World Bank, but it is affordable for higher-skilled workers. And prices could dip lower, just as charges for cellphone services have dropped in India over the past several years, according to Mr. Jalil.

Mr. Jalil says the reason that phone carriers using WiChorus's equipment will be able to charge so little is that the company has simplified products such as cellphone base stations (which serve as hubs to let the phones communicate), taking out nonessential features and functions. The company announced yesterday that it has received nearly $25 million in financing from U.S. investors that include the Mayfield Fund, Redpoint Ventures and Accel Partners.

Not everyone is convinced the new offshore business model is a good one. Rob Chandra, a managing partner at investment firm Bessemer Venture Partners in Menlo Park, says companies need more than great engineering talent to build products the developing world will buy.

"I am skeptical of companies that can know enough about what Indian consumers and enterprises need if the start-ups' management is sitting in Silicon Valley," says Mr. Chandra.

Mr. Jalil notes that most big Indian telecom carriers buy their core infrastructure from Western companies, like Finland's Nokia Corp. He is convinced WiChorus's technology is very relevant to India. "You can really bridge the gap between the emerging world and the developed world by bringing broadband connectivity," he says.